In July, Covered California announced the preliminary weighted average 2024 premium rate changes for the ACA individual market. They still haven't released the final/approved rates, or the small group market average rate changes, but today they released the final rate changes for standalone dental plans:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California announced that the statewide weighted average rate change for dental coverage in 2024 will be 4.31 percent. The rate increase is the first since 2020 and continues a trend of holding costs steady for consumers.
Not much noteworthy here other than that Celtic is joining the Delaware individual market for the first time next year. Aetna Health seems to have added a second division in the small group market as well, but perhaps not since both the requested rate change and the current enrollment are identical to the existing Aetna Health listing, so I'm not sure what to make of that. It's a nominal number of enrollees, however, so it doesn't really move the needle anyway.
In any event, Delaware carriers are asking for an average 4.7% rate increase on the individual market and an 8.7% hike for small group plans...subject to state regulatory approval, of course.
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need. The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
Georgia's health department doesn't publish their annual rate filings publicly, but they don't hide them either; I was able to acquire pretty much everything via a simple FOIA request. Huge kudos to the GA OCI folks!
Back in July, I compiled the weighted average requested rate changes for 2024 for both the Georgia individual and small group markets. At the time, individual market carriers were asking for rate hikes ranging from a relatively modest 6% (UnitedHealthcare) to a stunning 27.7% increase (Cigna). The weighted average came in at right around 15% even.
On the small group market, meanwhile, only around half the carrier filings were available at all, so I couldn't really run a proper average, although of those which had filed theirs, the average came in at 12.6%.
Earlier today I acquired the most recent rate filings for every carrier in both markets. I don't know for certain whether these are the final, approved rates for 2024, but it seems likely:
I've finally completed my Annual Individual & Small Group Market Rate Filing project for preliminary 2024 rate filings, having analyzed & crunched the numbers for the individual and small group markets across all 50 states + DC, so it's time to step back and see where things stand nationally.
It's important to remember that these are preliminary filings only--many of the carriers will have their final 2024 rate changes reduced, although in many cases they tend to be approved as is.
It's also important to note that I only have weighted average rate changes for 30 states (+DC). For the other 20 states, I've only been able to generate unweighted average rate changes--that is, I have to assume every carrier in that state has the same number of ACA enrollees since their rate filing forms are either unavailable or heavily redacted, making it impossible for me to know how many people are enrolled in their policies.
The main reason for this was the implementation of a so-called "reinsurance" program which was originally passed by the (then Democratically-controlled) state legislature:
The most significant thing to impact Virginia carriers 2023 filings was the state's Section 1332 Reinsurance Waiver. I wrote about this way back in 2018 when the state was originally considering applying for one, but it didn't actually go into effect until January 2023:
Shapiro Administration Announces Public Comment Period On Proposed 2024 Health Insurance Rate Increases
Harrisburg, PA – Pennsylvania Insurance Commissioner Michael Humphreys today welcomed public comment on the requested rate changes insurance companies currently operating in Pennsylvania's individual and small group market filed for 2024. The comment period on the proposed rate increases will close on September 8.
"The Shapiro Administration is committed to raising awareness about the importance of health insurance and providing increased access to affordable, comprehensive health coverage," said Humphreys. "We strongly encourage individual market consumers to shop for coverage on Pennie® where they may qualify for financial assistance that, as we consistently hear from Pennsylvanians, makes coverage more affordable than they thought might be possible."
Oklahoma is another state where I have no access to the actual enrollment data--all I have to go by are the average requested rate changes for each carrier on the individual and small group markets. As a result, the averages for each market are unweighted.
For individual market plans, that unweighted average is just 2.2%, though the carriers range from as low as a 3.5% drop to as high as a 6.1% increase. It's also worth noting that Friday Health Plans are kaput.
Similarly, for the small group market, average requested rate hikes range from as little as 0.8% for CommunityCare to as much as a 9.3% for Aetna. The unweighted average is 4.9%.
Not much to report about the 2024 individual and small group market rate filings. I could only find current enrollment numbers for two of the three indy market carriers and for three of the five small group market carriers. However, based on last year's total enrollment, I'm estimating ND's total indy market at being roughly 50,000 people, which means I was able to make an educated guess at how many are enrolled in Sanford Health Plan policies.
Based on this, I have a (mostly) weighted requested average rate increase of 4.4% for individual market plans and an unweighted average of 6.5% for small group market plans.
New Jersey individual & small group market carriers are asking for unweighted average rate increases of 6.7% and 13.0% respectively for 2024. However, the unweighted averages don't tell the whole story--the carriers are asking for rate hikes ranging from as low as 3.8% to as high as 13.8% on the individual market, and from as low as 2.3% to a stunning 25.9% for small group plans.
As is the case with far too many states these days, most of the rate filing memorandums are heavily redacted in New Jersey, making it nearly impossible to get ahold of the actual enrollment numbers, which means I have no way of running a weighted average on either market.
